Analysis of the New Security Strategy of the Government of Mexico: Challenges and Perspectives

Por Jonathan Maza

On October 8, 2024, President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo’s government presented its new Security Strategy, a plan aimed at confronting the growing violence and organized crime in Mexico. This strategy intends to continue the efforts of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, but with a renewed focus that emphasizes the centralization of coordination and cooperation between security forces and the pursuit of solutions to the social and economic causes of crime.

Objectives and Pillars of the Strategy

The main objective of the new strategy is to reduce high-impact crimes such as homicides, kidnappings, and extortions linked to organized crime. Citizen security, especially in high-risk areas, will be a priority. The need to strengthen the National Guard is emphasized, while also promoting a more integrated approach to addressing the roots of crime.

The strategy is based on three key objectives and four pillars:

1. Decrease High-Impact Crimes: Violence linked to organized crime, such as homicides and kidnappings, is the primary target. Special attention will also be paid to crimes like extortion and highway robbery.
2. Neutralize Violence Generators: This involves focusing on criminal networks and the main actors responsible for violence in each of the 32 states. High-crime areas will be the focus of more intensive security operations.
3. Strengthen Local Prevention: Prevention will be key in the fight against crime, with an emphasis on strengthening the capabilities of local police to improve proximity to the community.
4. Address the Social and Economic Causes of Crime: Social programs like «Youth Building the Future» will continue, and efforts will be made to involve all sectors of government to create viable alternatives for young people at risk of joining criminal groups.

Consolidation of the National Guard and Armed Forces

One of the most significant measures in this strategy is the transfer of the National Guard (GN) to the control of the Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA), which will consolidate the military presence in public security. This move has generated controversy due to concerns from certain sectors about the militarization of security functions, which could lead to greater use of force and an increase in confrontations with criminal organizations.

However, the National Guard has also taken on criminal investigation functions as an auxiliary to the Federal Attorney General’s Office (FGR), and significant efforts are being made to professionalize and train its personnel to act more efficiently and professionally.

Strengthening Intelligence and Interinstitutional Coordination

The success of this strategy will largely depend on the government’s ability to coordinate its efforts at various levels. The creation of the National Intelligence System and the strengthening of the capabilities of the National Intelligence Center (CNI) are crucial steps to integrate information from various security agencies, such as the Ministry of Defense (SEDENA), the Navy (SEMAR), the SSPC, the FGR, and state prosecutors.

One of the key aspects of this approach is coordination between federal and state security forces, which will enable a more effective response to the challenges posed by organized crime, especially in regions like the northern border, which faces specific challenges due to violence and drug trafficking.

Challenges and Criticisms of the Strategy

Despite the good intentions, the new strategy faces several structural and operational challenges. First, the operational dependence on military capacities for public security raises concerns about the effectiveness of results in building a public security environment and the potential violation of human rights, a recurring issue during López Obrador’s administration. The growing role of the Armed Forces, both in controlling the National Guard and executing security operations, could lead to greater confrontation with criminal groups, increasing violence and collateral damage in areas already affected by crime.

Another concern is the inefficiency of social programs. Despite efforts to offer alternatives to vulnerable young people, the economic incentives from social programs have not significantly reduced crime rates. There is a risk that criminal organizations and their families may exploit these resources, perpetuating the cycle of violence rather than breaking it.

Furthermore, the restructuring of security and intelligence institutions could lead to coordination problems between various agencies, potentially affecting the flow of information and overall efficiency.

Impact on the Northern Border

One of the most affected states will be Baja California, which, in 2024, recorded one of the highest rates of intentional homicides in Mexico. Territorial disputes between cartels such as the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel are the primary causes of this violence. While the region has received a historic investment of 280.4 million pesos for public security, the conditions along the Baja California-Sonora border remain complex, especially in areas like the Mexicali Valley, where violence persists.

The strategy should focus on strengthening coordination between federal and local authorities, especially in high-risk areas, to improve effectiveness in the fight against organized crime.

Conclusion

The new Security Strategy of the Government of Mexico has the potential to be a positive step toward reducing violence in the country, but it depends on its correct implementation and the government’s ability to overcome the many challenges it faces. The operational dependence on the Armed Forces, the inefficiency of social programs, and interinstitutional coordination are just some of the obstacles that could limit its success.

As President Sheinbaum has already proposed, an integrated approach is necessary that not only focuses on repressive action but also addresses the root causes of violence and crime, including poverty, lack of opportunities, and corruption at all levels of government. Only then will it be possible to create a safer Mexico with greater social justice.